ECB releases the account of its October monetary policy meeting
- Policymakers generally agreed that data was weaker than expected
- But remains in line with expansion and gradually rising inflationary pressures
- Policy remains on steady track in line with market expectations
- Trade tensions may be being offset by higher US imports
- Acknowledged uncertainties and fragilities of outlook with regards to that
- A remark was made that number of arguments pointed towards risks to growth tilting to the downside
The key takeaway for me here is that final comment on how they are viewing risks to their outlook. The ECB has constantly maintained over its last few meetings that "risks are broadly balanced", which is allowing them to proceed to end QE next month and move towards aiming to tighten monetary policy next year.
But if they shift the language to "risks are tilted to the downside", it's a sign that they may proceed more cautiously and push back expectations of a rate hike next year. Something to note moving forward.