A quick look at today's European Central Bank meeting and press conference 2 June 2016
I'm not expecting any fireworks from the ECB today with regards to any changes in interest rate or QE but it would be churlish to be complacent with the presser always guaranteed to make a few moves.
Inflation is still too low at -0.1% but off its lows and I think Draghi will stress that he has concerns still but that some improvement should be seen in the wake of recent gains in oil/energy prices. Complacency by him on that one though would be similarly churlish as strong global demand for oil or output freezes are still unlikely to happen in the present scenario.
Draghi should repeat the mantra that they are poised to add more stimulus to its €1.74 trln package if it's needed to meet inflation forecasts currently standing at 1.3% for 2017 and 1.6% for 2019 ahead of the ultimate dream ticket of 2%.
He will focus on the forthcoming TLTRO Mark 2 and the CSPP ( Corporate Sector Purchase Programme ) and assure the markets that these measures will do the required job. In addition we can expect the ECB to be a little more relaxed about the more hawkish talk from the US Fed giving EURUSD a knock lower and taking the steam out of recent rallies.
Add to that recent EURJPY falls to match off against EURGBP rallies and talking of the latter pair we can expect a Brexit-based question or two/three. If Draghi warns of substantial impact on the Eurozone then we could see a real wobble in EURGBP and other EUR pairs but I would expect him to at least try and dodge the bullets in much the same way as BOE's Carney has done under interrogation of his own.
So what levels should we be looking for ? Well EURGBPhas decent supply/res into 0.7800-10 with support into 0.7700 and I think that should cover it in essence. EURUSD has large option interest at 1.1100 which should provide support but the order board shows strong supply between 1.1220-50 ahead of more into 1.1300 and 1.1350-80. EURJPY has strong demand into 121.00 and supply into 124.00
Watch the presser live here but we'll bring the coverage and analysis here as always.
And don't forget you can also tune into watch Ryan involved in a live NFP webinar here tomorrow but you need to register first .
As always trade what you see but equally stand back and take a second/third look, otherwise you risk getting the wrong side of any intra-day mayhem.
And remember,
