BOE's Vlieghe: Cautious policy currently warranted

Comments from BOE's Vlieghe

  • Low Rates Necessary While There Is Slack In The Economy And Core Inflation Pressures Remain Subdued

  • A Premature Rate Hike Is A More Serious Mistake Than One That Turns Out To Be Delayed.

  • Given The Low Level Of Interest Rates Currently, Limited Amount Of Room For Further Easing Versus Tightening

  • Asset Purchases Are An Imperfect Substitute For Policy Rate Changes

  • Inflationary Pressures Seem To Be Subdued- Wage Growth Has Picked Up, But Not Nearly As Much As We Had Expected.

  • There May Be More Slack In The Labour Market Than The Unemployment Rate Would Suggest

  • Brexit Uncertainty Didn't Sharply Cut Company Spending, Business Investment Has Been Flat

  • Could Justify Higher Level Of Bank Rate, If Inflationary Pressures Spread Beyond Exchange-Rate Pass-Through- Rate Rise Warranted If I See A Re-Acceleration Of Indicators Related To Household Spending And Credit

  • The Horizon Over Which We Aim To Return Inflation To Target Can Vary In Circumstances Where Economic Shocks Push Growth And Inflation In Opposite Directions, As We Think Is The Case Now

  • The Impact On Household Income Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Subdued Wage Inflation, Is Substantial.

  • Recent Retail Sales Data Have Started To Show Signs Of Slowing.

  • The Economic Slowdown Is More Likely To Intensify Than Fade Away, Although That Does Not Mean There Are No Upside Risks.

  • If Strong Credit Growth Continues, I Would See It As A Sign That Monetary Policy Is Too Loose.

  • In The Absence Of A Consumption Slowdown, There Is Less Prospective Economic Slack, And Therefore Less Justification For Tolerating Above Target Inflation At The Forecast Horizon

The comments are a mixed bag between watching for signs of a slowdown and where his tolerance levels are for the inflation picture. If anything they are mildly dovish.

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