BOE MPC vote 9-0 to keep rates and QE on hold

  • two members saw decision as "finely balanced"
  • one member saw next move roughly as likely to be loosening as tightening
  • rate cuts,QE possible if downside risks realised
  • all members viewed it more likely that rates will rise over next 3 years
  • likely that rate increases will be more gradual and limited than previously
  • see wage growth faster than expected but risk that low inflation could limit fututure pay growth
  • see wage growth picking up to 4% over next 2 years but risks on both sides
  • CPI more likely than to fall below 0.0%
  • political uncertainty ahead of May 7 election could delay investment. No sign of this yet

Full Minutes here

Not a lot that we didn't already know but the bulls will be happy enough

GBP higher mainly on the jobs and wage data

Best in 2026

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