• Excluding these factors, CPI would probably be well below 2% target
• Real differences of opinion on MPC, great deal of uncertainty about mid-term CPI outlook
• CPI likely to pick up to between 4-5% over next few months due to commodity, energy prices
• If bank rate rises in line with market expectations, CPI as likely to be above target as below in 2-3 years
• Atempting to bring CPI back to target quickly risks generating undesireable GDP volatility
• Downside risks to CPI from spare capacity, upside risks from inflation expectations, import prices
• Should be in no doubt that when balance of risks requires it, MPC determined to adjust policy to bring risks back to balance