BOC's Schembri: Recuperation phase is highly uncertain

Comments from the BOC deputy:

  • No comments on future monetary policy moves
  • Cautious household spending will likely continue until a vaccine becomes available
  • Fiscal measures should continue to buffer income losses and support for household spending
  • Sees two phases: Reopening and recuperation
  • Reopening phase will be rapid, recuperation will be prolonged and uneven
  • More persistent disruptions in the job market could slow recovery
  • The longer income losses persist, the higher the risk of possible insolvencies; situation in energy-producing regions particularly notable because they were already under financial stress
  • Less immigration may cause a slower recovery

These comments are along the same lines as something I wrote yesterday: So much depends on the duration of COVID-19.

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