BOC’s Poloz says Q1 growth to be on the soft side

Poloz blames weather, USD/CAD jumps.

Other headlines from Poloz in Halifax:

  • Growth still likely to approach 2.5% over next couple of years
  • Inflation seems to be running at 2.5%, give or take a tenth or two
  • The possibility of longer-term stagnation globally needs to be taken seriously
  • Canada’s long term growth would be higher than 2% if not for poor demographics
  • Sees US post-crisis hangover dissipating, momentum building, will lead to Canadian exports and investment
  • Most analysts expect softer Feb inflation, partly due to base effects
  • Full speech

There isn’t anything that could be applied to rates here. He’s saying the BOC will look past soft near-term growth and inflation numbers but the warnings that those numbers will be soft are a reminder of the risk of holding CAD.

USD/CAD is at a session high at 1.1085. The loonie is getting cleaned out on the commodity FX crosses today as well.

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