Adam has a comprehensive preview posted here: Bank of Canada preview: A meeting with global implications
Policy statement, rate decision plus the Monetary Policy Report (today with revised revised forecasts) 10am ET (1400GMT)
Followed by a press conference at 11:15am (1515GMT)
- Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins
I posted some of the bank previews:
- Bank of Canada meeting coming up today - preview
- Bank of Canada meeting coming up - preview
A couple more, via:
CIBC:
- The Bank of Canada will have to upgrade its forecast for inflation in the April MPR, but with growth indicators disappointing it will have to downgrade its GDP projections.
- Provided economic data starts to show some of the optimism indicated within the Business Outlook Survey, a July hike is still our base-case expectation.
- Manufacturing and retail sales should be positive, but not the barnburners that may be anticipated following a lackluster few months. While an on-hold BoC could weigh slightly on rate expectations and the C$, another upside surprise on inflation come Friday would see those expectations ratcheted up again.
Scotiabank wrote a huge note ... I picked out the comments on Poloz' presser:
- It's possible that while the MPR doesn't alter negative forecast judgement (ie: model overrides that retain a negative bias on GDP growth), what Poloz says in the press conference is more uncertain.
- He might flag apparent progress in negotiations, or simply refuse to acknowledge progress while reiterating that he hasn't seen a deal yet. I suspect the latter at this point given Poloz's emphasis upon risk management but obviously the BoC's assessment of trade policy risks could change abruptly as developments unfold.
