There was no prospect of a rate hike today
- Lower bound still at 0.25% and upper bound still at 0.50%
- Pace of QE remains at "at least" $4B per week
- Economic slack not absorbed "until into 2023", same as prior
- Says "economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated"
- GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be positive, rather than the contraction forecast in January
- Housing market activity has been much stronger than expected
- Improved foreign and commodity demand has also brightened the picture
- Despite the stronger near-term outlook, there is still considerable economic slack and a great deal of uncertainty about the evolution of the virus and the path of economic growth.
- Labor market is "a long way from recovery"
There is no press conference after this release and there are no new forecasts until April.
There's plenty of optimism there but that was all built in after the strong economic data. What the market was watching for was a hint at a change in QE or some other guides on rates. Instead, the BOC has essentially punted to April.
That highlights the virtue of not having press conferences and over-communicating. It gives you a chance to evaluate without the market or journalists forcing your hand. That said, the BOC's Schembri has a speech tomorrow at 1830 GMT (1:30 pm ET) and will host a press conference at 1445 GMT.
