- Did you know that since 1946 there have been 17 midterm elections?
- Did you also know that the average return from the S&P between Oct 31st of the midterm year and Oct 31st the next year has been 17.5%?
- Did you further know that the S&P has produced a positive return in 17/17 of these midterm periods?
Sam Stovall at S&P Capital IQ does.
As well as stocks performing well the dollar is also up on the back of the elections last night and US financials are starting to feel very sure of themselves right now. US 10 year yields are up near 2.37% and many bond traders might be looking at the fabled run to 3.0% once more, (while still treating the scars from the last attempt to go there).
Sentiment is a huge part of trading and we’ve seen both side of it in quick succession over the last few weeks.
It’s not a surprise to me to see the dollar fade on the ADP numbers. As I noted last month during the jobs releases there’s no upward surprise for markets on jobs. Wages are now the key component and you can almost forget whatever payrolls number we get.
The market shifts focus onto what is going to get the Fed and rates moving and every chance they get to jump on positivity, whether politically or fundamentally they’ll grab it with both hands.
The dollar has come a long way very quickly but don’t rule out it going much further, at least until we hear the Fed moaning about it.
You can read the CNBC article before jumping into stock longs here
