A preview of the US non-farm payrolls report for February 6, 2015:
Release time is Friday at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT)
- Median estimate 230K (225K private)
- Dec reading: 252K
- High est 286K (JPMorgan)
- Low est 185K (Prestige Economics)
- Standard deviation: 20K
- NFP 6-month avg 263K
- Unemployment rate est. at 5.6% vs 5.6% prior
- Prior participation rate 62.7%
- ADP 213K vs 2253K prior (223K exp)
- Avg of estimates made after ADP/ISM-non: 219K
- ISM November manufacturing employment 54.1 vs 56.0 prior
- ISM November non-manufacturing employment: 51.6 vs 55.7 prior
- Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 25.7 vs 27.3 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 293K vs 293K at the time of the Dec jobs report
- Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine showed demand for hiring up 150K
- Jan Challenger job cuts: -+17.67% y/y
- Nov JOLTS job openings: 4972K vs 4850K prior
- Underemployment rate prior: 11.2%
- Avg hourly earnings exp +1.9% y/y vs +1.7% prior
- Avg hourly earnings exp +0.3% m/m vs -0.2% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.6vs 34.6 prior
The main focus, as always, will be on the number of jobs gained/lost but after unit labor cost data on Thursday, there will also be a focus on wage inflation numbers, especially avg hourly earnings. A downside surprise there could sap any initial US dollar gains.
Non farm payrolls
Deutsche Bank was out with some interesting data today on the market reaction and noted that the initial reaction is driven by the jobs gained, followed by the revisions, then unemployment rate abut the most-lasting driver is wage growth, at least lately.
They’re not clear on how they’ve quantified but they note that for the first 5 minutes after release there is too much focus on job gains so focus on wage growth and the unemployment data if you’d like to trade the second wave.
For more payrolls analysis, check out this video preview from me and Greg Michalowski:
