PARIS (MNI) – For French President Francois Hollande’s Socialist
Party and its smaller allies, an absolute majority in the lower house of
parliament appears within reach if not assured, based on early
projections from the first round of voting Sunday.
Nationwide estimates showed the Socialists and their closest
electoral allies, including the Radical Party of the Left, neck-and-neck
with the UMP party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy – each with close
to 35% of the total vote.
But if the Greens, which signed onto Hollande’s campaign platform,
are included, it pushes the pro-Hollande camp to about 40% of the vote,
better positioning it for an absolute majority in the National Assembly
that would allow it to pass legislation without the support of the
hard-left Leftist Front.
The Leftist Front was at just under 7% of the vote, according to
French pollsters TNS Sofres and CSA.
“In total, the leftist bloc could … have the majority, but it’s
much more uncertain for the Socialist Party” and its junior coalition
parties, cautioned TNS Sofres director Brice Teinturier.
Still, based on early estimates and assumptions about transfers of
votes to candidates in the second round, TNS Sofres and CSA projected
that the Socialists and their closest allies would win somewhere between
283 and 329 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. Reaching the higher
end of that range would give them a solid majority on their own.
If those projections are to be believed, there appears to be only a
small risk that Hollande and his allies will fall short of an absolute
majority — 289 seats — and have to rely on support in parliament from
the Leftist Front, whose party program is far more radical and difficult
to reconcile with that of the president. The Greens would provide an
additional comfort margin of anywhere from 8 to 18 seats, depending on
which pollster you read.
Estimates from TNS Sofres show the Leftist Front could be on track
for between 13-18 seats in parliament. But its charismatic leader,
Jean-Luc Melenchon, will not be present. He bravely decided to run
against the head of the extreme right National Front, Marine Le Pen, and
placed third after Le Pen and the Socialist runner-up.
The National Front won over 13% of the vote nationwide in the first
round. However, lacking potential allies for the second round, the party
is likely to win only a few seats at best in the run-offs. The same is
true of the centrist Modem party, with less than 2% of the vote in the
first round. Even its party leader, Francois Bayrou, faces an uphill
battle to retain his seat in the Assembly.
The UMP party could win 220-260 seats, depending in part on the
strength of its rival to the right, the National Front. UMP leader
Francois Cope reaffirmed Sunday that there would be no alliance with the
National Front, which will play in the favor of the Socialists.
A few candidates obtained enough votes to win parliamentary seats
in the first round, notably Prime Minister Marc Ayrault and Foreign
Minister Laurent Fabius. The rest will have to wait for the results of
the run-offs next Sunday, which could still bring surprises.
In most districts, the run-offs will pit a UMP candidate against a
Socialist or an ally. Roughly 30 districts could see a three-way race
that includes the National Front.
The low turnout of less than 60% made it harder for the smaller
parties to win the 12.5% of the registered electorate needed in a given
district to qualify for the run-offs. At the same time, the high
abstention rate allows the underdogs to hope for a turnaround if they
can mobilize supporters who sat out the first round.
Both Cope and Socialist leader Martine Aubry agreed Sunday that the
race was still open and urged their supporters to return to the polls in
a week’s time.
–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com
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