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Eamonn Sheridan

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Central Banks
Japanese yen currency
Central Banks

Japan metalworkers union seeks bigger wage hikes, reinforcing BOJ rate-hike expectations

  • Renewed wage pressure strengthens the narrative that Japan’s labour market is providing the “initial momentum” Governor Ueda says is necessary for sustainable inflation. Robust union demands into shuntō raise the probability of a December BOJ rate hike, supporting yen upside at the margin while keeping upward pressure on JGB yields. Markets will track how widely these wage requests are adopted across sectors.
Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 23:48 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 23:48 GMT
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News
shop retail 21 July 2025
News

Japan data huge miss - Household spending plummets in Oct, down 3% y/y vs. +1% expected

  • The steep decline in household spending highlights the disconnect between rising wages and consumer behaviour, potentially limiting the BOJ’s confidence in near-term demand-driven inflation. Yen traders may see the release as modestly dovish for December, though broader policy expectations still hinge on wage momentum and next week’s inflation data.
Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 23:34 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 23:34 GMT
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Commodities
gold hourly 05 December 2025 2
Commodities

Gold steady around $4,210 as markets await PCE data and next week’s Fed meeting

  • Gold’s near-term direction hinges on U.S. data that will determine whether real yields continue drifting lower. A soft PCE print today could reinforce the case for a December rate cut and underpin bullion, while stronger labour or inflation readings in mid-December risk a pullback.
Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 23:08 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 23:08 GMT
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Central Banks
BoJ
Central Banks

BOJ secures support for December hike but long-term rate path remains unclear

  • Government backing removes a key hurdle for the BOJ’s December hike and reduces near-term policy risk. But without clarity on the eventual neutral rate, long-end JGBs remain vulnerable and yen volatility stays elevated. Forward guidance at the December meeting will be crucial for FX and rates positioning.
Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 22:40 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 22:40 GMT
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News
Xi Trump art of the deal
News

USTR Greer calls for smaller, balanced China trade and tighter USMCA enforcement

  • USTR Greer said the U.S. wants a stable but smaller and more balanced trade relationship with China, highlighting a 25% decline in the U.S. goods deficit as progress. He also warned of problems within the USMCA and stressed the need to prevent Mexico and Canada from being used as export hubs for Asian producers.
Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 22:22 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
04/12/2025 | 22:22 GMT
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