RBNZ

Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview - likely the final 50bp interest rate cut

• NZ FX and interest rate markets will likely continue to be driven by offshore events

ANZ says NZ jobs data don’t stand in the way of RBNZ 50bp cut at meeting on 19 February

• Data all but locks in a 50bps OCR cut at the RBNZ’s next meeting on 19 February

More on the New Zealand jobs data - unemployment hitting a 4 year high

• There is nothing in the data to stop the RBNZ from cutting by 50bp at its next meeting

Here's a forecast for 100bp of Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts in 2025

• Westpac forecast

RBNZ's Conway says policy committee confident inflation will abate

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand chief economist Conway: Easing domestic pricing intentions and a drop in inflation expectations will help open the way for some further easing of the OCR, as signalled in November.

RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway is speaking on Wednesday - on growth and interest rates

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand speaker on Wednesday, January 29, 2025

New Zealand inflation data today has pricing for an RBNZ 50bp rate cut at around 67%

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet on February 19

RBNZ's own preferred inflation model 3.1% y/y for Q4 2024 (prior 3.4%)

• The sectoral factor model is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's own preferred inflation measure

Heads up NZD traders - more inflation data is due, from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

• RBNZ's own preferred inflation model - the sectoral factor model - is still to come

New Zealand credit card spending -3.2% y/y in November (prior +0.3%)

• Data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecast to cut by 50bp in February, then by 25 in April & May

• More on Westpac's RBNZ forecasts

Westpac forecasts the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut cash rate to 3.25% by May 2025

• The RBNZ cash rate target is currently 4.25%

New Zealand "dramatically worse than anyone had expected" - RBNZ could cut by 75bp in Feb

• New Zealand Q3 GDP data - "dire state" of the economy

RBNZ Orr: Changes to capital rules will not increase competition among banks

More on this revised RBNZ forecast from ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February

• ANZ responding to forceful communication from the central bank