RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia statement due Tuesday, 1 August 2023 - previews

Economic calendar in Asia, Tuesday 1 August 2023 - Reserve Bank of Australia day!

ANZ: we expect the RBA to stay on hold this week; AUD/NZD tactical trading strategy

• ANZ expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged. Global factors will impact AUD movement, while New Zealand's labor data will be driven by global dynamics. ANZ advises waiting for AUD/NZD to dip to 1.07 before buying.

Australian data - June Private Sector Credit +0.2% m/m (expected 0.4%, prior 0.4%)

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include US jobs report, BoE, RBA and PMI data

• Next week highlights include the US jobs report and global PMI data, as well as central bank rate decisions from the BoE and RBA.

It's a close call on a RBA rate hike for next week

• What are the economists saying and what is priced in?

Commonwealth Bank expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike cash rate by 25bp next week

Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike cash rate by 25 bp next week

Nomura still expecting another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike, but not until November

Big changes at the Reserve Bank of Australia - policy meeting dates for 2024 announced

Goldman Sachs lowered their terminal RBA rate forecast to 4.6% (previously at 4.8%)

ICYMI - NAB changed forecast for RBA next week to 'on hold' (prior was +25bp rate hike)

NAB now sees no RBA rate hike in August

• This comes after the softer Australia CPI data earlier

AUD - decline in inflation should be enough to keep the RBA on hold at their next meeting

AUD/USD marked lower after better than expected (with a caveat) inflation data