NZD

New Zealand narrows budget deficit forecast, eases near-term bond issuance plans

• New Zealand budget is out

RBNZ inflation expectations survey: 1 yr CPI seen at 2.44% (prior 2.25) 2 yr 2.54% (2.47)

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Business Expectations Survey (BES)

New Zealand April exports higher than in March: NZD7.84bn vs 7.41bn

• New Zealand trade data for April 2025

HSBC sees G10 FX consolidation as trade risks fade; AUD, NZD may firm

• Less demand for JPY and CHF havens

NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Price boxed in by a multi-timeframe moving average cluster

• NZDUSD trapped in moving average gridlock—next break above 0.5927 or below 0.5880 will set the tone

New Zealand Q1 PPI inputs and outputs both higher q/q

• New Zealand first quarter producer price index

New Zealand data: April Services PMI drops deeper into contraction at 48.5 (prior 49.1)

• BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for April 2025

New Zealand April Manufacturing PMI shows an uptick in expansion to 53.9 vs. prior 53.2

• BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

NZDUSD testing 200-bar MA on 4-hour chart and swing area down ot 0.5852 area

• Buyers fail to hold breakout above 100-bar MA on 4-hour chart yesterday gave sellers the go-ahead to push lower. Now back testing technical support

New Zealand Food Price Index for April +0.8% m/m (prior +0.5%)

Buyers in the NZDUSD are losing momentum. Down on the day now.

• The price of the NZDUSD is now negative on the day and below the 200-hour MA at 0.59378

New Zealand retail sales indicator, April: -0.3% y/y (prior -1.6) & 0.0% m/m (prior -0.8%)

• New Zealand card sales data

NZDUSD climbs after sellers miss their shot at breakdown

• NZDUSD rebound gains traction as buyers eye a break above 0.5949; support now firm at 0.5935 and then the 100 hour MA at 0.5907

NZDUSD moves to new lows for day and lowest level since April 14

• Price breaks below 200-day MA and key support zone; next focus is holding below the 38.2% retracement.

NZDUSD sellers make a move but fail on the break

• Cluster of moving averages and swing areas provide near-term technical hurdles