NZD

NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Rangebound price action as traders await new catalysts

• The NZDUSD pair is consolidating below a key resistance zone around the 0.5760 level. The focus remains on US-China developments but we will also get the US CPI and the US Flash PMIs on Friday.

New Zealand September trade balance -1355mn NZD (prior -1185mn)

• Imports up, exports down in September

Reserve Bank of New Zealand's own inflation indicator +2.7% y/y

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand's sectoral factor model of inflation, its preferred measure.

New Zealand Q3 CPI +1% q/q (expected +1%) and +3% y/y (expected +3%)

• New Zealand dollar not a lot changed after the NZ inflation data

NZDUSD pulls back into a major resistance zone: US-China headlines and NZ Q3 CPI in focus

• The NZDUSD pair is trading at a key resistance zone around the 0.5750 level with the focus remaining on the US-China headlines and the upcoming New Zealand Q3 inflation report

New Zealand data - Food Price Index (September) -0.4% m/m (prior also +0.3%)

• The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand.

The NZDUSD trades up and down with the 100 hour MA stalling the topside

• The 100 hour MA for the NZDUSD will be a key barometer for the buyers and sellers

S&P affirm New Zealand ratings

New Zealand data: September Card Spending Retail -0.5% m/m (prior +0.6%)

• The electronic cards data covers about 68 percent of core retail sales in the country, and is the main measure of monthly retail activity.

Permanent migration to New Zealand plunged lower in August

• At the margin a headwind for NZD

New Zealand services PMI for September 48.3 (prior 47.6)

• BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) still in contraction. An improvement from August though.

New Zealand September Manufacturing PMI 49.9 (prior 49.9)

• BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Sep: 49.9 (prior 49.9)

NZDUSD Technicals: Corrective resistance holds on the NZDUSD bounce. Seller in control.

• The NZDUSD moved up to test the 50% retracement and 100/200 hour MAs and found willing sellers. Sellers remain in control below 0.5804.

NZDUSD Technicals: The NZDUSD moved lower after the 50 bp cut, but has bounced. What next?

• The price low today stalled near a swing level on the daily chart and above the 61.8% of the move up from 2025 low.

ANZ forecast another 25bp rate cut from the RBNZ at its November meeting

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet on November 26, 2025