JPY

BOJ edges closer to rate hike as board signals rising confidence in wage momentum

• The BOJ’s October meeting summary showed most policymakers see a case for a near-term rate hike if wage growth holds and global conditions stay stable. Two members wanted an immediate increase, while Governor Ueda urged patience to confirm data trends.

Japan PM Takaichi to examine new govt fiscal target for future that looks at fiscal state

• Takaichi adds that Govt must restore market trust in Japan’s finances but boosting investment is also needed to strengthen economic growth

BoJ Summary of Oct meeting highlights the importance of wages to future rate hikes

• Bank of Japan wants to see rising wage settings. This is not a new piece of information.

Japan’s Takaichi abandons annual budget target, takes softer fiscal consolidation stance

• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan will scrap its annual primary budget balance target and adopt a multi-year framework to measure fiscal progress, easing its commitment to consolidation. The pro-spending leader is preparing a new stimulus package despite Japan’s record debt levels.

Japan's Nikkei: "Yen surge scenario fades as banks revise outlook downward"

• JPMorgan Chase cut its year-end forecast for the yen to 156 per dollar from 142, and now sees 152 by March 2026 instead of 139.

Goldman Sachs sees U.S. investors piling into Japan as Nikkei outshines S&P 500

• GS note particularly strong inflows in tech and AI sectors, as the Nikkei outperforms global peers with a 30% dollar-based gain this year. Sees further upside from foreign inflows, though short-term consolidation may follow.

Newsquawk Week Ahead: China CPI and Activity Data, UK & Aussie Jobs, BoJ SOO

• Next week's highlights include China inflation and activity data, labour market reports from the UK and Australia, New Zealand Inflation Forecasts and the BoJ Summary of Opinions.

Japan PM Takaichi fills key panels with Abenomics-style stimulus advocates

• Takaichi’s new economic team revives Abenomics-era stimulus thinking as Japan tilts toward big spending and loose policy.

Japanese household spending (September) +1.8% y/y (missing the +2.5% expected)

• The m/m result was poor, coming in at -0.47% vs. -0.1% expected

USDJPY Technical Analysis: The US dollar strength runs out of steam

• The USDJPY pair consolidates near the recent highs as the US dollar strength runs out of steam. What's next?

Japan, U.S. plan joint rare earth mining near Minamitori Island

• Japan and the U.S. will study joint rare earth mining around Minamitori Island, with Japan set to start test extraction early next year to reduce reliance on China.

Japan to revamp foreign investment law, narrow IT reviews, and close loopholes

• Japan will tighten its foreign investment rules next year, narrowing IT reviews and creating a U.S.-style screening panel to strengthen national security oversight.

Japan S&P Global Services PMI Final for October 2025 53.1, down from September's 53.3

Yen recovery to ¥147 forecast on BoJ rate hike prospects - eases intervention pressure

• Rabobank’s call reinforces expectations that BoJ tightening speculation will offer near-term support for the yen, while highlighting the ministry’s readiness to act if dollar/yen stays elevated.

Japanese real wages in September fell 1.4% y/y, down for the ninth month in a row

• Japan wages data for September 2025