Fed

UBS said a U.S. shutdown would have minimal lasting impact and advised investors to look past political noise. With more Fed cuts and solid earnings expected, UBS sees the S&P 500 climbing to 6,800 by mid-2026, gold to USD 3,900, and the USD weakening in favour of the EUR and AUD.

Eamonn Sheridan

02/10/2025 | 00:21 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

02/10/2025 | 00:21 GMT

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Central Banks

fed funds fedwatch 02 October 2025 interest rate cut

Central Banks

Market pricing is uncertain on an October Fed 25bp interest rate cut, only 99% sure ;-)

Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 99% probability of an October 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut

Eamonn Sheridan

01/10/2025 | 21:24 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

01/10/2025 | 21:24 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Fed's Goolsbee says beginning to get concerned about inflation rising

Goolsbee is a dove, who does not sound dovish right now

Eamonn Sheridan

01/10/2025 | 21:12 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

01/10/2025 | 21:12 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Supreme Court refuses to let Trump immediately fire Fed's Lisa Cook

Supreme Court will hear arguments, which is no surprise

Adam Button

01/10/2025 | 14:49 GMT

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Adam Button

01/10/2025 | 14:49 GMT

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Central Banks

Fed's Logan says more to be done to hit 2% inflation target

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan

Eamonn Sheridan

30/09/2025 | 23:16 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

30/09/2025 | 23:16 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Goldman Sachs: Equity markets betting on soft landing support by Fed cuts, fiscal stimulus

But bond investors remain concerned about weakening U.S. jobs.

Eamonn Sheridan

30/09/2025 | 22:15 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

30/09/2025 | 22:15 GMT

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Central Banks

Fed's Goolsbee: If services inflation continues to rise, I would be nervous

More from the Chicago Fed President

Adam Button

30/09/2025 | 19:39 GMT

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Adam Button

30/09/2025 | 19:39 GMT

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Central Banks

More from the Fed's Collins: If economy meets expectations, gradual cuts to follow

Comments from Collins

Adam Button

30/09/2025 | 18:27 GMT

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Adam Button

30/09/2025 | 18:27 GMT

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Central Banks

Fed's Goolsbee: It's still a pretty steady labor market

Comments from the Chicago Fed President

Adam Button

30/09/2025 | 17:47 GMT

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Adam Button

30/09/2025 | 17:47 GMT

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Central Banks

Fed's Collins: It may be appropriate to cut rates again if data supports easing

Comments from the FOMC policymaker, Susan Collins

Giuseppe Dellamotta

30/09/2025 | 13:03 GMT

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Giuseppe Dellamotta

30/09/2025 | 13:03 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Fed's Jefferson: The labor market is softening and could face stress if not supported

Comments from the Fed's Vice Chair, Philip Jefferson

Giuseppe Dellamotta

30/09/2025 | 10:01 GMT

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Giuseppe Dellamotta

30/09/2025 | 10:01 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Shutdown? M'eh. UBS says the Federal Reserve will cut in October anyway.

UBS said a U.S. government shutdown would block the release of key economic data, but expects the Fed to press ahead with a 25bp cut in October, relying on private surveys and its own data to guide policy.

Eamonn Sheridan

29/09/2025 | 23:20 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

29/09/2025 | 23:20 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Goldman Sachs: Jobs data could decide equity-bond market split

Goldman Sachs says equities are pricing in a soft landing with fiscal-driven growth into 2026, while bonds are bracing for labour-market weakness. The split puts extra weight on the jobs report and other key data releases.

Eamonn Sheridan

29/09/2025 | 21:54 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

29/09/2025 | 21:54 GMT

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Central Banks

Fed's Musalem: It's important to lean against above-target inflation regardless of source

Comments from the St Louis Fed President

Adam Button

29/09/2025 | 17:46 GMT

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Adam Button

29/09/2025 | 17:46 GMT

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Fed's Logan: We need to be very cautious about rate cuts

UBS downplays U.S. shutdown fears, sees S&P 500 at 6,800 and gold at $3,900

Market pricing is uncertain on an October Fed 25bp interest rate cut, only 99% sure ;-)

Fed's Goolsbee says beginning to get concerned about inflation rising

Supreme Court refuses to let Trump immediately fire Fed's Lisa Cook

Fed's Logan says more to be done to hit 2% inflation target

Goldman Sachs: Equity markets betting on soft landing support by Fed cuts, fiscal stimulus

Fed's Goolsbee: If services inflation continues to rise, I would be nervous

More from the Fed's Collins: If economy meets expectations, gradual cuts to follow

Fed's Goolsbee: It's still a pretty steady labor market

Fed's Collins: It may be appropriate to cut rates again if data supports easing

Fed's Jefferson: The labor market is softening and could face stress if not supported

Shutdown? M'eh. UBS says the Federal Reserve will cut in October anyway.

Goldman Sachs: Jobs data could decide equity-bond market split

Fed's Musalem: It's important to lean against above-target inflation regardless of source

Best in 2026