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Fed preview: what's priced in and what could surprise the market?

  • The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate to 3.75-4.00% and announce an end to QT. The base case is for the central bank to keep the status quo, but there's a small chance we could get a hawkish surprise
Giuseppe Dellamotta
29/10/2025 | 10:43 GMT
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Giuseppe Dellamotta
29/10/2025 | 10:43 GMT
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Central Banks
Fed
Central Banks

The ADP data released yesterday could hurt Fed's conviction for a December cut

  • The market is 100% sure on another rate cut in December, but what if the Fed casts doubt on it?
Giuseppe Dellamotta
29/10/2025 | 08:39 GMT
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Giuseppe Dellamotta
29/10/2025 | 08:39 GMT
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News
Powell Trump Fed
News

Trump: We will not have the Fed raising interest rates

  • Remarks by US president, Donald Trump, as he arrives in South Korea
Justin Low
29/10/2025 | 04:26 GMT
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Justin Low
29/10/2025 | 04:26 GMT
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Central Banks
Trump vs Powell
Central Banks

Federal Reserve FOMC preview - Powell seen cutting rates but holding guidance steady

  • Standard Chartered sees 25bp Fed cut, Powell cautious as data blackout clouds outlook.
Eamonn Sheridan
29/10/2025 | 04:06 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
29/10/2025 | 04:06 GMT
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Central Banks
wrap ticker prices
Central Banks

Coming up - Fed expected to cut rates by 25 bps, Powell seen offering limited guidance

  • The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today, with Chair Powell likely to remain cautious and avoid new guidance. Divisions persist inside the FOMC as some officials warn about sticky inflation while others point to rising labour-market risks.
Eamonn Sheridan
29/10/2025 | 02:14 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
29/10/2025 | 02:14 GMT
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News
manufacturing
News

US October Richmond Fed composite index -4 versus -17 last month

  • The Richmond Fed October 2025 index for services and manufacturing shipments
Greg Michalowski
28/10/2025 | 14:02 GMT
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Greg Michalowski
28/10/2025 | 14:02 GMT
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Central Banks
Federal Reserve
Central Banks

Fed to cut rates again this week, then take a more risk management approach after - BofA

  • BofA is one of the few expecting just one more 25 bps rate cut by year-end
Justin Low
28/10/2025 | 05:18 GMT
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Justin Low
28/10/2025 | 05:18 GMT
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Central Banks
FED DICE
Central Banks

Fed to cut rates and retain an easing bias this week - Morgan Stanley

  • The firm says another 25 bps rate cut by the Fed is due this week
Justin Low
28/10/2025 | 04:14 GMT
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Justin Low
28/10/2025 | 04:14 GMT
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Central Banks
Federal Reserve
Central Banks

ICYMI - Bessent has named five finalists for Fed chair

  • Waller, Bowman, Hassett, Warsh, and Rieder. Just waiting for the evening gown round I guess.
Eamonn Sheridan
27/10/2025 | 20:32 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
27/10/2025 | 20:32 GMT
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Central Banks
Newsquawk Week Ahead
Central Banks

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US-China trade talks, FOMC, BoC, BoJ, ECB and Aussie CPI

  • Next week focus lies on the US-China trade talks, rate decisions from the Fed, BoC, BoJ and ECB, while Australian CPI and Chinese PMIs will also be key.
Newsquawk Analysis
26/10/2025 | 22:16 GMT
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Newsquawk Analysis
26/10/2025 | 22:16 GMT
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News
Manufacturing index
News

Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for October 15 versus 4 last month

  • Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for October 2025
Greg Michalowski
23/10/2025 | 15:10 GMT
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Greg Michalowski
23/10/2025 | 15:10 GMT
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Central Banks
Newsquawk Week Ahead
Central Banks

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US, UK, Japan and Canada CPI, Flash Global PMIs, Japan PM Vote

  • Next week highlights include inflation data from the US, UK, Japan and Canada. Flash Global PMI data, the Japanese PM Vote and China Activity Data.
Newsquawk Analysis
19/10/2025 | 11:05 GMT
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Newsquawk Analysis
19/10/2025 | 11:05 GMT
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Central Banks
Fed
Central Banks

Fed's Musalem: I could support a path with another cut if more risks to jobs

  • Fed's Musalem speaking now.
Greg Michalowski
17/10/2025 | 16:27 GMT
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Greg Michalowski
17/10/2025 | 16:27 GMT
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Central Banks
musalem
Central Banks

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speak on Friday

  • Will discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy
Eamonn Sheridan
17/10/2025 | 03:07 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
17/10/2025 | 03:07 GMT
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Central Banks
ECB
Central Banks

MUFG: ECB may cut again by mid-2026 but euro seen firm as Fed eases faster

  • Markets could price in additional Fed easing, supporting the EUR/USD.
Eamonn Sheridan
17/10/2025 | 02:19 GMT
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Eamonn Sheridan
17/10/2025 | 02:19 GMT
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