CNH

China Sep. Industrial Production 4.5% y/y (exp 4.3%) & Retail sales 5.5% y/y (exp 4.9%)

• China 'activity data' for September 2023

China Q2 GDP +1.3% q/q (expected 1.0%)

• China's economy grew more strongly than expected in Q3 of 2023

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1795 (vs. estimate at 7.3079)

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3079 – Reuters estimate

• There will once again be a huge divergence between this modelled estimate and the actual reference rate that the PBOC sets. I'm expecting somewhere around the 7.17 big figure again.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1796 (vs. estimate at 7.3038)

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3038 – Reuters estimate

• The actual rate will be set somewhere on or around 7.17, not this model estimate

People's Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1798 (vs. estimate at 7.3121)

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3121 – Reuters estimate

Chinese financial press says that researchers see more RRR, rate cuts, this year

Weekend - PBOC Governor Pan promised to provide more substantial support to real economy

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US retail sales, China activity data, PBoC, NZ, UK and Canada CPI

• The highlights of next week include the US retail sales, China activity data, the PBoC MLF and LPR, alongside inflation data from New Zealand, UK, Japan and Canada

China September USD dollar denominated Exports -6.2% y/y, Imports -6.2%

China September CPI +0.2% m/m (vs. expected +0.3%)

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1775 (vs. estimate at 7.3179)