China Stock Market

ICYMI - S&P rating agency has downgraded another Chinese property developer

• Chinese property developer Longfor

People's Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (prior 2.5%)

• Injects 100bn yuan via a 1 year MLF, net drain of 70bn yuan

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0979 (vs. estimate at 7.2478)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2478 – Reuters estimate

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

ICYMI: New bank lending in China rose less than expected in March

• Current pressure on the renminbi makes substantial rate cuts less likely

MLF day in China - No rate cut expected from the People's Bank of China

• Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) is set in China today, around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time Sunday)

China's state planner to set up a domestic coal production reserve system

• The system is intended to stabilise prices & supply.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0967 (vs. estimate at 7.2365)

• Another huge discrepancy between the modelled estimate and the setting from the Bank

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2365 – Reuters estimate

• The rate from the Bank will be A LOT lower than this, it was 1600+ pips lower yesterday!

Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs have both lifted their forecasts for China economic growth

• 4.8 and 5% respectively

Refresher on the bind the PBoC is in on the weak yuan -don't want to trigger a crash

China March CPI -1% m/m (-0.5% expected)

• CPI and PPI data from China

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0968 (vs. estimate at 7.2622)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2622 – Reuters estimate

• The rate that is set by the Bank will be around 1300 points lower than this model estimate

Asia Development Bank raises China growth forecast for 2024 to 4.8% (from 4.5%)

• 2025 seen at 4.5%