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FOMC December meeting minutes coming up - premature rate cut euphoria likely to take a hit
- The minutes pose a danger, likely to push back against massive rate cut expectations
US ISM Manufacturing Index is due Wednesday - the numbers to watch
- A result outside the consensus range should prompt sharper market swings.
UBS expects stronger-than-expected jobs in Friday's NFP, but jobs not the main 2024 story
- UBS sees a focus on ongoing inflation slowdown, aiding real wage growth for a soft landing
IMF Chief forecasts lower inflation and rates ahead, advises everyone to cheer up
- International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke on CNN
BoA expect the US Federal Reserve will cut its funds rate by 100 basis points in 2024
- First rate cut to come on March 20
US 10-year yield finishes the year right where it began
- 3.83% at the start of the year 3.87% at the end
Fidelity on sticky inflation, and only limited Fed cuts - "market is like a spoiled child"
- Fidelity Investments foresees a persistent 3% inflation rate
US 10 year yield is lower now on the year as traders price in a softer Fed in 2024
- The close at the end of 2022 was at 3.886%
Ex-Fed Dallas head Kaplan expects FOMC to lower rates soon, to avoid a flip side mistake
- Kaplan's insights come after his earlier warnings about rising inflation were overlooked.
US Core PCE Price Index (Fed preferred inflation indicator) is due Friday: Ranges to watch
- US data: Discover how the eagerly awaited Core PCE Price Index should influence market movement
Middle East / Red Sea turmoil: Impact on inflation, oil prices, shipping costs
- Spoiler alert - no impact on inflation seen
Fed needs to cut by 100bp just to get to neutral, not their job to push back equity rally
- Six rate cuts priced in, but 100 basis points of those is really just getting to neutral
Morgan Stanley predict the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates until June
- Will take until June for the Fed to have clear evidence of inflation returning to its target
US sells 20-year bonds 4.213% vs 4.198% WI
- $13 billion 20-year auction
The U.S. Treasury to auction $13 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour
- Actual results versus the 6- month averages of the major components will determine the auction's success or failure
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