Bonds

Goldman Sachs project 25bp Federal Reserve March rate cut, followed by another 4 this year

• And raises US growth predictions

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on Tuesday

• Waller' speaking before the blackout period begins this coming weekend

WSJ survey of economists indicates that the probability of a US recession is down sharply

• But, "for a lot of people, it is still going to feel like a recession."

JP Morgan's CEO Dimon warns inflation may be stickier, rates higher, than markets expect

• Dimon on large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus, and ongoing.

Schumer says US congressional leaders have agree to a stopgap funding measure

• A bipartisan stopgap measure to avert shutdown

Barclays moved its forecast for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to March (from June)

• Fed officials' mixed messages continue the uncertainty though.

Attention shifts to the Fed's preferred measure of inflation

• Yes, CPI was high but it's looking like PCE could be low

The incredible bid in US 2-year notes continues

• Massive turnaround since CPI

Higher US CPI not enough to drag yields across the finish line

• The selloff in bonds to start the year fails to cross a key technical hurdle

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks on the economy Friday

Goldman Sachs anticipates Federal Reserve tapering announcement in May '24

• And to begin tapering soon after

December US CPI - Barclays analysts didn't say "I told you so" but they should have

• Will the slight uptick in inflation be enough to change perception?

U.S. Treasury auctions of $21 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.229%

• WI (when issued) level was 4.230% at the auction time.

US treasury to auction or $21 billion of 30 year note at the top of the hour

• The final coupon auction this week

Yields lower as the wait continues ahead of the US CPI data

• 10-year Treasury yields down 4 bps to 3.99%