Bonds

China central bank dep gov: Global bond investors remain confident in China’s bond market

• People's Bank of China comments on the bond market

HSBC, IBM use quantum computing to boost bond price predictions by 34%

• HSBC deploys quantum computing in bond trading, first bank to do so at scale

Morgan Stanley sees weaker USD, sticky yields as tariffs and policy shifts bite

• Morgan Stanley says entrenched tariffs and industrial policy mean steeper yield curves and a weaker dollar ahead, as the Fed tolerates more inflation risk to support growth. Capital markets are rebounding, but the lasting impact is a structurally softer USD and stickier long yields.

US treasury to auction off $70 billion of the 5 year notes at the top of the hour

U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.571%

• WI level at the time of the auction 3.572%

Jamie Dimon: Tariffs modestly inflationary, a mild recession risk for U.S. economy

• Jamie Dimon warned that tariffs are likely to be modestly inflationary and mildly recessionary, with their effects spread over time rather than as a one-off shock.

Why this chart is deceiving

• The cash-on-the-sidelines argument isn't as strong as you might think

Dalio: US debt crisis threatens currencies. Says buy gold, it'll gain as safe store.

• Ray Dalio said global debt pressures are undermining the value of major currencies and boosting the appeal of gold and non-fiat alternatives. Warning of a looming U.S. fiscal crisis that could destabilize the monetary system, he urged investors to hold about 10% of their portfolios in gold, while noting that political reluctance to rein in deficits will worsen supply-demand strains in U.S. debt markets.

ECB’s Scicluna flags trade, euro risks but sees policy well placed

• ECB policymaker Edward Scicluna said interest rates are “fine where they are,” with inflation projected slightly under 2% and risks balanced by the economy’s resilience and fiscal spending. He described policy as neutral, stressing there’s no urgency to adjust unless conditions change.

Short-term JGB yields shoot higher as traders scramble to price in next BOJ rate hike

• Is October suddenly on the table?

China slashes US Treasuries stake, holdings sink to lowest since 2008

• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to an all-time high in July, led by Japan and the UK, while China pared back to its lowest holdings since 2008.

US sells 10-year TIPS at 1.734% -- big tail

• TIPS might get interesting again

US 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls to the lowest since October 2024

• US 30-year fixed rate falls to 6.26%

The bond sellers are out in force and it's driving the US dollar higher. Here's why

• The market takes a fresh look at the Fed

Mercer says Trump’s trade and Fed pressure spur investor shift away from US assets.

• Mercer says Trump’s trade policies and efforts to pressure the Fed are prompting investors to cut US exposure, with clients overseeing $17 trillion shifting funds toward Europe, Japan, and private markets.