Bonds

Trump admin evaluating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public offering for end-2025

• FHFA Director William Pulte confirmed the Trump administration is "opportunistically evaluating" a public offering for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, potentially by end-2025, to finally end their 2008-era government conservatorship.

Goldman Sachs on US CPI & jobs - labor market indicators more reliable on recession risk

• Goldman Sachs sounding the alarm bells on "recent labor market weakness"

France downgraded to A+ by S&P. Outlook from 'negative' to 'stable'

• S&P Global downgraded France's long-term debt rating from 'AA-/A-1+' to 'A+/A-1'. This rare move outside of a scheduled review was prompted by significant political instability in France.

Gold rush continues, US yields start to break down

• Some big markets moves are underway as we look to the final stretch of this week

S&P: Trump’s tariffs to cost $1.2 trillion, consumers bear most of burden

• S&P Global estimates Trump’s tariffs will cost global firms $1.2 trillion in 2025, with about two-thirds of the burden falling on consumers. The report warns tariffs act as taxes on supply chains and may pressure growth and margins.

SOFR rise above Fed Funds signals emerging US funding tightness (**** could hit the fan)

• The shift adds to signs that U.S. liquidity conditions are tightening, with money-market rates diverging from the Fed’s policy corridor.

Barclays sees 2% U.S. growth pace through 2026, flags risks from tariffs and jobs

• Barclays projects U.S. GDP growth will average 2% q/q through mid-2026, with tariffs exerting only gradual drag as firms stagger cost pass-throughs. It sees rising joblessness and weaker consumption as the main downside risks.

The bond market once again finds itself at a key juncture

• 10-year Treasury yields have not firmly broken below the 4% mark this year

Global investors crowd into gold as bullish sentiment hits eight-month high — BofA survey

• Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey shows investors turning risk-on, with equity allocations at an eight-month high and cash at multi-year lows. “Long gold” has overtaken tech as the most crowded trade, reflecting fears of inflation, dollar debasement, and geopolitics.

Reminder, US stock markets are open on Monday (bonds closed) despite the holiday

6.30am in Beijing. Traders might exercise caution, await China's response to Trump's cave

• While Trump has been very quick to back down from his threats we have not yet had a response to his overtures from China.

Big news - US plans to release the September CPI report data despite government shut down

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to publish the September Consumer Price Index report even amid the ongoing government shutdown,

U.S. Treasury auctions of $22 billion of the 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.734%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.730%

Japan 5year Japanese Government Bond auction reflects modest caution

• Japan 5-year JGB auction sees slightly softer demand

The U.S. Treasury is to auction off $39 billion of 10 year notes at the top of the hour

• The 2nd of 3 coupon auctions this week