BOE

MUFG lifts EUR/GBP targets to 0.90

• MUFG expects the pound to stay under pressure as UK rate-cut odds rise. The bank forecasts EUR/GBP at 0.8900 by early 2026 and 0.9000 by mid-year, citing peak inflation, looming tax rises, and scope for lower front-end yields.

MUFG sees Bank of England (BoE) holding this week, December rate cut still base case

• MUFG’s outlook suggests limited sterling upside even if the BoE pauses this week. With rate-cut expectations anchored for December, traders may fade any pound strength and refocus on inflation, growth, and fiscal signals into year-end.

Barclays expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates this week

• Goldman Sachs and Barclays are now both expecting a 25bp rate cut to 3.75%

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US ISM PMIs, ADP, Supreme Court Tariff Hearing, RBA, BoE, OPEC-8

• Next week's macroeconomic highlights include US ISM Manufacturing and Service PMI surveys, as well as the US ADP employment report. In Canada, the October jobs report will be eyed. The Supreme Court Tariff hearing will also be key, as will rate decisions from the RBA and BoE. Energy traders will be looking towards the OPEC-8 meeting over the weekend. Elsewhere, the US refinancing estimates and quarterly refunding is due, while in France, the French Revenue Budget vote takes focus.

Goldman Sachs sees BoE cutting rates in November: weak UK data, contractionary Budget

• Goldman Sachs now sees the Bank of England cutting rates in November due to weaker UK economic data and a contractionary budget. It expects a series of further cuts, taking the Bank Rate to about 3 per cent by mid-2026.

Goldman Sachs expects a 25bp rate cut from the Bank of England in November

• Goldman Sachs prior forecast was for no rate cut

The Tuesday UK inflation data still reverberating through markets - BoE rate cut prospects

• The BRC data doesn't often get noticed, it did yesterday

Sterling vulnerable if BOE cuts rates in December, MUFG says

• MUFG Bank says the pound may fall if the Bank of England cuts rates in December, as markets are not fully priced for such a move. The bank said a cut looks more likely if inflation data continue to show signs of cooling.

Aberdeen says December BoE rate cut more likely after inflation surprise

• Aberdeen says an unexpected stall in UK inflation, supported by moderating wage growth, has made a December rate cut by the Bank of England more likely.

BoE's Dhingra: Expect US tariffs to put downward pressure on growth and prices

• Comments from the BoE policymaker, Swati Dhingra

Traders increase BoE rate cut bets with the December meeting now seen as live

• The soft UK CPI report triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations for the BoE

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US, UK, Japan and Canada CPI, Flash Global PMIs, Japan PM Vote

• Next week highlights include inflation data from the US, UK, Japan and Canada. Flash Global PMI data, the Japanese PM Vote and China Activity Data.

BOE Greene: Core and services inflation are going sideways

• BOEs Greene speaking

BoE's Pill: A more cautious withdrawal of monetary policy restriction may be appropriate

• Comments from the BoE policymaker, Huw Pill

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks on Friday