The scribes have scribbled, the number crunchers have crunched, here's what they all say about the state of the US economy
- CRT saw slowing GDP down to inflation but the rest was on the soft side too. They say "pick your poison". Is it a worry about inflation or a worry about consumption and investment? They lean on the consumption and investment side
- MUFG says the US weathered the storms in the first quarter and that's good news and the Fed can start hiking in June
- TD say domestic weakness was to blame for the drop in growth momentum
- Credit Suisse note that the last two Q1's have been weak and there were mitigating factors from energy weakness and PCE holding up. Q2 GDP could be 2%
- BNPP don't like the look of nominal GDP slowing significantly in the last 4 quarters. They says it's been a steady slowing of output and not a blip and the pop in core PCE might be short lived
- Barclays says persistently slow Q1 growth has become the norm and the reasons are unlikely to persist
- Morgan Stanley thinks they need to up their PCE forecast to 1.6% y/y from 1.5%
- Pantheon Macroeconomics says Q2 will be better than Q1 as persistent seasonal adjustment problems plagues Q1 numbers
The stand out is that there's not many of them making note on what the numbers mean for the Fed. There's some scepticism of Q1 figures and that's unlikely to get many changing their Fed hike tunes.
