The pair has been contained by a mix of oil, USD moves and expiry interest
I first highlighted the large contracts rolling off today at 1.3200 on Monday and there's seems evidence to me that the bias is to the topside and a defence being undertaken.
Not a clear picture though given oil price fluctuations and general USD demand but definitely one to keep an eye on as we head into expiry time at 14.00 GMT
The pair has really thin liquidity, always has done, so we could yet see an attack on the downside if the sell-side counterparty is just biding their time. We have seen sharp pre-expiry moves in the past.
Currently 1.3243 and finding a cap around 1.3250 so far in Asia and Europe.
Remember that these are "vanilla" options so still in play right up to expiry at 14.00 GMT on the day even if breached in the meantime, unlike barrier options.
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