A recap of how seasonal patterns performed in the forex market and elsewhere in March 2019
I had a quick look at March seasonal patterns a month ago so it's time to review. The main seasonal pattern I wrote about was Australian dollar strength.
How did it go? Well the Australian dollar was the top G10 performer, so I'd say it went pretty well. Unfortunately, it wasn't exactly a booming month in FX with the moves all relatively small. AUD/USD gained 0.47% in the month while EUR/AUD shorts would have returned a more-meaningful 1.9%.
it's notable that the AUD/USD tailwind continues to blow in the month ahead but in the short-term, watch for signals from the RBA and the federal budget today. Those are going to be huge events.
Other March patterns I briefly noted (and how they did):
- Modest DXY weakness (DXY gained 1.2%)
- 5 consecutive years of weakness in Bitcoin (Bitcoin up 7%)
- Modest EUR strength (the euro struggled and lagged G10 FX)
- Modest gold softness (gold down 1.6%)
- It's the best month for Japanese and US stocks (SPX +2.1%, Nikkei -0.4%)
- Best month for NZD (it had a slight gain)
- Poor month for the yen (it had a slight gain)
One of the best ones continues to be oil. I highlighted the period of strength from Feb through April at the start of February. That's been a great trade. I'll have April seasonals up shortly.
