Following on from Adam’s post the pair has it’s teflon coat on once more.
The market sentiment is changing but having learned from previous lessons on how the cogs of power work, it’s not going to be in a rush to get ahead of itself.
When all is said and done, with German data, ECB mutterings and bloody banking union speeches, we are still only 130 pips up from the beginning of the month. That’s not a market flying to the moon like it once would have.
There’s definitely caution out there but here we are towards the top of the 400 pip range we’ve been stuck in since mid March.
Today’s move has sneaked above the 100 dma at 1.3157. We haven’t managed to get a foothold above it since breaking down through it in Feb.
Should the rally continue then 1.3200 will be the target which contains option related selling, offers and the 100 wma. From there the previous high of 1.3241 awaits but we still have the 50 fib level at 1.3227 which may halt things first. Even though we broke it the market quickly fell below it’s held up since.
I’m not overly keen on using it for the basis of going short but would look at it for a part profit target.
Below the market we have the 55 H$ ma at 1.3098 and would expect some bids to be at 1.31, next is the 100 H4ma at 1.3080 which is a level that has been strong support and resistance recently, further on down is a short 2 week trend line at 1.03065
I’m not going to get all excited over the pair like some of you lot
and I want to see some proper movement not this namby pamby stuff we’ve been served up recently. As Mike pointed out earlier, the edges are good to play but I would advise keeping stops a little tighter as the range will obviously break eventually.
