Futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the close on Tuesday, Nov 5, 2013:
- EUR net long 33k vs long 71k prior
- JPY net short 73K vs short 62K prior
- GBP net short 2K vs long 10K prior
- AUD net short 25K vs short 23K prior
- CAD net short 8K vs short 15K prior
- CHF net long 8k vs long 11k prior
- NZD net long 11k vs long 11k prior
- Dollar Index net long 8K vs 2K prior
This data set has finally caught up from the shutdown. Yen shorts are coming into fashion. Some of the late-comers might have gotten squeezed out yesterday but there were likely plenty to replace them today.
Cable is surprisingly neutral and that could fuel an extended move in either direction so that’s a place to watch for volatility.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the remainder of the euro longs knocked out in next week’s data (which will include the ECB). That will limit the ability for a quick move lower but at the same time, there is plenty of space for EUR shorts to build — it would just mean a slower, steadier move down in EUR/USD/
