Not even a week into 2026, and things are already getting lively, especially in geopolitics. In the early hours of January 3, the United States launched a swift military operation in Venezuela aimed at capturing and extracting President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, both accused by Washington of narcoterrorism.
But the motivations likely go beyond the immediate target. Based on statements from U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this could be just the first step in America’s broader effort to reassert influence in the Western Hemisphere.
That said, markets don’t seem overly worried, with the Dow Jones hitting record highs on Monday and the S&P 500 also moving higher.
Why such indifference?
The operation hasn’t escalated into a full-scale war, the U.S. seems to have achieved its stated objectives, and investors see little reason to expect further conflict. Additionally, Venezuela’s massive oil reserves raise hopes that crude oil prices could fall, easing energy inflation and potentially allowing the Fed to cut rates more quickly.
However, that last point is far from straightforward. Venezuelan oil is unlikely to reach global markets anytime soon, unless we’re talking about oil already loaded onto tankers.
The problem is that Venezuela primarily produces heavy crude, which is more difficult and expensive to extract, requiring sophisticated infrastructure and logistics. After years of sanctions and underinvestment, the country’s oil industry is in poor condition. Restoring production to pre-sanctions levels would likely take years, by which time U.S. geopolitical priorities may have shifted again.
The good news is that even if the U.S. doesn’t manage to bring Venezuelan oil to market quickly, some companies are poised to see faster profits, particularly those involved in rebuilding infrastructure, drilling, and refining.
No wonder the biggest gains went to the stocks of oil service companies, especially Halliburton and SLB Limited, which handle the nuts and bolts of oil extraction. Chevron, the only major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela, saw its stock rise only about half as much, with ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil trailing behind.
The takeaway is that while markets are clearly optimistic, quick profits from the U.S. operation in Venezuela are far from guaranteed for all involved. Much will depend on how the situation unfolds — specifically, whether the new authorities in Caracas comply with U.S. demands or whether “Madurismo” and “Chavismo” persist under a new guise.
