Bitcoin Market Context & Bias (117,140 now; +1.7% d/d)
Default stance: neutral until a trigger fires.
We have one bearish condition trigger and one bullish condition trigger (both are “two-step” to avoid false signals).
| Scenario | When to turn bearish or bullish | Where to enter | Targets (take profit) | Where to place the stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT (sell) — bearish condition trigger | Step 1: Price moves up to 117,650 or higher → Step 2: Then drops back below 117,150 and holds (2–5 min or 1–2 candles). After both steps, turn bearish. | Optional: first small bounce below 117,150 after the breakdown | TP1: 116,530 → TP2: 116,090 → TP3: 115,425 → TP4: 114,100 | Just above 118k but after TP1 is reached, move the stop to entry. | Two-step design filters fake breaks and chases. |
| LONG (buy) — bullish condition trigger | Step 1: Price dips to 113,000 or below → Step 2: Then moves back above 113,070 and holds. After both steps, turn bullish. | First small pullback that stays above 113,070 | TP1: 113,475 → TP2: 113,965 → TP3: 114,500 → TP4: 116,000 → TP5: 117,400 → TP6: 118,700 | Stop a little below 112,880. After TP1, move stop to entry. | Longer ladder for trend follow; trim as objectives hit. |
tradeCompass stop rule (quick): Put your stop just beyond the activation side with a small buffer; never beyond the opposite threshold. After TP2, move the stop to entry and manage a runner.
What else is moving crypto today (quick scan)
ECB turns the screws on stablecoins: The ECB—backed by the European Systemic Risk Board—wants to ban “multi-issuance” stablecoins and is pushing a digital euro target for 2029; a bank-led euro stablecoin in 2026 is also in the works. This is a headwind for USD-stablecoin dominance in Europe and could shift liquidity dynamics for BTC/ETH on EUR venues.
BTC 'base' narrative from earlier this week: BTC built a floor above the January highs with a ~2.9% daily pop on Sept 29, but the piece noted a lack of obvious upside catalysts and a weaker link to Nasdaq than in prior cycles. Keep that in mind when judging today’s triggers. investingLive
Tiny glossary (for new traders)
POC (point of control): today’s most-traded price; often a magnet.
Condition trigger: a two-step rule (e.g., down then back up) to improve signal quality.
Professional disclaimer
This is decision support, not investment advice. Trade your plan, size responsibly, and adapt if price invalidates the setup.
